Category Archives: Ukraine crisis

Update on the crisis: A Ukrainian victory in Slavyansk but Kyiv still facing a major challenge in trying to secure Donetsk and Luhansk

Posted on by • Posted in Geopolitics, Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis

The Ukrainian military delivered some welcome news to Kyiv today. Ukrainian forces have driven the separatists out of their stronghold in Slavyansk and have taken control of the city. They also appear to be on the verge of doing the same in Kramatorsk. In Slavyansk, the separatists abandoned a good deal of equipment and appear to have lost many fighters, and they lost additional assets, including armored vehicles, during the retreat.

That said, I very much doubt that Kyiv is on the verge of a decisive victory in the Donbas. Continue reading →

Transnistria: A bridge too far for the Kremlin?

Posted on by • Posted in Eurasian Union, Geopolitics, Moldova, NATO, Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis • 3 Comments

While the Kremlin’s long-term objective in Ukraine has been, and remains, the country’s integration into a Russian-dominated Eurasian Union, my guess is that its endgame in the current crisis is the establishment of a breakaway region in the east modeled on Transnistria in Moldova. Continue reading →

What’s driving Russia’s “humanitarian intervention” in eastern Ukraine

Posted on by • Posted in Geopolitics, NATO, Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis

The Interpreter magazine’s “Ukraine Liveblog” site has posted compelling evidence that what amounts to a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine is underway. Many video clips are available on the Internet showing what appear to be unmarked Russian tanks, military fighting vehicles (BTRs), multiple rocket launchers (MRLS), artillery, and transport trucks moving deep into eastern Ukraine.

Continue reading →

Ukraine, Syria, and iIliberal unilateralism: Anne-Marie Slaughter in yesterday’s New York Times

Posted on by • Posted in Ukraine crisis

In an op-ed in The New York Times yesterday, Anne-Marie Slaughter, president and chief executive of the New America Foundation and from 2009 to 2011 director of policy planning at the State Department, argues that the Obama White House should have listened to her and others in the State Department (including presumably her boss, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) who argued that the United States should provide weapons to the moderate opposition in Syria as the country began its descent into civil war. Had it done so, she argues, it “could have stopped the carnage spreading today in Syria and in Iraq.”

This claim strikes me as implausible in the extreme.

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No own goals at the September NATO summit

Posted on by • Posted in European Union, NATO, Ukraine crisis, US-Russian relations

NATO is facing a host of difficult choices about how to respond to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its role in the uprisings in eastern Ukraine. The alliance has already taken steps to bolster its eastern defenses, and additional decisions will be made as events unfold over the coming three months. But most crucial decisions are going to be made at the September 4-5 NATO summit in Wales. The alliance is being urged by its eastern members to take additional measures to deter Russia from further acts of aggression and intimidation. It is also facing an extremely difficult decision over how to handle Georgia’s push to join the alliance.

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The annexation of Crimea as an historical turning point

Posted on by • Posted in Geopolitics, NATO, Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis, US-Russian relations

I generally avoid unfalsifiable generalizations about historical epochs, but in this case I will indulge myself. I believe that Russia’s occupation and annexation of Crimea is going to prove as much of an inflection point in post-Cold War history as the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Continue reading →

Why a settlement in the Donbas is unlikely

Posted on by • Posted in Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis • 1 Comment

Last Friday, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s then President-elect (now President) Petro Poroshenko met in Normandy during the 70th anniversary of D-Day celebrations. In an interview with a Russian television station afterward, Putin stated: “I can only welcome Mr. Poroshenko’s position that the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine must be stopped immediately. I cannot say for sure how that can be implemented in practical terms, but overall it seemed to me to be the right approach.” Continue reading →

Kyiv still between a rock and a hard place

Posted on by • Posted in Ukraine crisis

The news from the Donbas over the past several days has not been good. Until about a week ago, it seemed possible that Moscow was turning a blind eye to the infiltration of the Donbas by militants from Russia but was not directly involved in organizing it. That seems much less likely now. Given the evidence, it is hard to believe that Moscow is not complicit in facilitating the movement of fighters and military equipment across the border. Continue reading →

Interpreting the results of Ukraine’s presidential election

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The final results of the Ukrainian presidential election May 25 will be published on June 1, but the basic outcome is clear. Petro Poroshenko won roughly 55 percent of the vote, a solid victory (as expected) that took him past the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a second round. Moreover, as per the map below, electoral support for him was relatively evenly distributed across the country Continue reading →

The uprisings in Ukraine: the known knowns, probable knowns, and known unknowns

Posted on by • Posted in Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis, US-Russian relations

It is difficult for someone not on site to know what is going on in a region as volatile and chaotic as Ukraine is today (although it is also true that being on site has its own information and bias problems). It is particularly difficult when the contending forces are as determined to frame events to their advantage as they are in the current crisis. Nevertheless, having followed the reporting coming out of Ukraine as closely as I could since last October, I have the following take on some of the disputed fact claims. Continue reading →

Update on the crisis: a skeptic’s take on Putin’s call for a postponement of the Donbas referendum

Posted on by • Posted in Ukraine crisis • Tagged ,

The big news today is that Putin has called for the postponement of a referendum on what amounts to “sovereignty” for the Donbas on May 11 that had been demanded by the pro-Russian separatists and has announced that Russian troops are pulling back from the border. I am very skeptical, however, that the Kremlin genuinely wants a significant de-escalation at this point.

Continue reading →

Reading Russia on Ukraine (2)

Posted on by • Posted in Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis, US-Russian relations • Tagged , , ,

As I suggested at the end of my previous post, how one reads Russia on Ukraine has implications for how the West responds to the annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s destabilization of southeastern Ukraine. If the Wag the Dog school is correct, then Putin and his advisors (“cronies,” in this reading) are motivated primarily by insecurity about the stability of Putin’s regime and by fear of losing their power and privileges. Thus, it is weakness and vulnerability, not strength, that is driving Kremlin policy. And it is not NATO that worries the Kremlin most, but the risk of contagion from a democratic, liberal, pro-Western regime in Kyiv. Continue reading →

The uprisings in Eastern Ukraine and Kyiv’s strategic dilemmas

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The political situation in eastern Ukraine continues to deteriorate, and at this point there appear to be three possible outcomes: (1) a successful effort by Kyiv to suppress the pro-Russian forces in the east; (2) civil war – that is, large-scale and sustained violence that last months and possibly years; or (3) a Russian military intervention. In my view, the least likely outcome is the first Continue reading →

Talking points on the Ukraine Crisis, April 12, 2014

Posted on by • Posted in NATO, Ukraine crisis, US-Russian relations • Tagged , , , , , ,

What are Russia’s objectives in Ukraine?

Russia’s objectives are multiple and include domestic as well as geopolitical factors, but in my view national security concerns and geopolitical considerations are paramount. Basically, Moscow has drawn a line in the sand against any further expansion of NATO to countries on its borders, above all Ukraine. The Russians have opposed NATO expansion since its inception, but what has changed is that Moscow now has the power to block the accession of Ukraine, or indeed of any other former Soviet republic that is not already a member of the alliance. Continue reading →

Carrots and sticks: a strategic response to the Ukraine crisis

Posted on by • Posted in NATO, Russian foreign policy, Ukraine crisis, US-Russian relations • Tagged , , ,

EWW Talk at the Institute of Governmental Studies panel on Ukraine, University of California, Berkeley, April 11, 2014

I continue to believe that the crisis in Ukraine is extremely dangerous and that the odds of a Russian invasion before the presidential elections on May 25 are significant. Continue reading →